319
FXUS63 KIWX 150000
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
700 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE "WARM" DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, AS
WELL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES (15-20%).
- HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
WAA WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR ROUGHLY ANOTHER 24 TO 30 HOURS OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
60S). AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL WINDOW OF DECENT
LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATER SAT MORNING (NW) INTO LATE
AFTERNOON (SE) WITH LITTLE, IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. WHILE I
CONSIDERED REMOVING "MEASURABLE POPS" AND ADDING SPRINKLES, FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE JUST KEPT THE SLGT CHC SHOWERS GOING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, FAVORABLE DELTA T'S WILL EXIST, BUT AS NOTED BY THE MID SHIFT
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LIMITED FETCH WILL LIMIT THE LAKE RESPONSE
(BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP).
A CLOSED UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
CA, WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND AND THEN EJECT ENE TOWARDS THE
REGION. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SHEAR OUT WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE WAVE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS IT ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING, SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE 00Z TUE THROUGH 00Z WED. WITH REGARDS TO PTYPE, THE
SW HALF OR SO OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING WITH NE AREAS LIKELY WELL BELOW FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 20S.
ABOVE THE SFC, THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM A
TOUCH OF 925/850 MB WARM NOSE (TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 0 C).
TIMING OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FINAL THERMAL PROFILES WILL
DICTATE WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND IN THE NE AS WELL AS
WHETHER IT IS SNOW OR MAYBE A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO SFC
TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT AT
THIS POINT NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE NEXT, STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN US MONDAY
MORNING, CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MED RANGE MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THIS ENERGIZED PATTERN. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
PERSIST IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL HELP
INCREASE CHANCES FOR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MIXING, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FOG OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY BEFORE THE DEEPER MIXING, SO HAVE INCLUDED WIND
SHEAR. OTHERWISE, GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SEEM REASONABLE DURING THE
DAYTIME MIXING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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