559
FXUS63 KIWX 150524
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1224 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE "WARM" DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, AS
WELL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES (15-20%).
- HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
WAA WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR ROUGHLY ANOTHER 24 TO 30 HOURS OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
60S). AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL WINDOW OF DECENT
LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
OVERALL FORCING IS RATHER WEAK. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATER SAT MORNING (NW) INTO LATE
AFTERNOON (SE) WITH LITTLE, IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. WHILE I
CONSIDERED REMOVING "MEASURABLE POPS" AND ADDING SPRINKLES, FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE JUST KEPT THE SLGT CHC SHOWERS GOING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, FAVORABLE DELTA T'S WILL EXIST, BUT AS NOTED BY THE MID SHIFT
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LIMITED FETCH WILL LIMIT THE LAKE RESPONSE
(BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP).
A CLOSED UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
CA, WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND AND THEN EJECT ENE TOWARDS THE
REGION. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SHEAR OUT WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE WAVE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS IT ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING, SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE 00Z TUE THROUGH 00Z WED. WITH REGARDS TO PTYPE, THE
SW HALF OR SO OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING WITH NE AREAS LIKELY WELL BELOW FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 20S.
ABOVE THE SFC, THERMAL PROFILES SEEM TO HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM A
TOUCH OF 925/850 MB WARM NOSE (TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 0 C).
TIMING OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FINAL THERMAL PROFILES WILL
DICTATE WHEN PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND IN THE NE AS WELL AS
WHETHER IT IS SNOW OR MAYBE A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO SFC
TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT AT
THIS POINT NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE NEXT, STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN US MONDAY
MORNING, CARVING OUT A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MED RANGE MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THIS ENERGIZED PATTERN. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
PERSIST IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR REACHES OF
NORTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH AND RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY OVER MINNESOTA. THIS
LOW, IN CONTRAST TO RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC, WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY.
SW/W WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALREADY RAMPING UP, HENCE THE
LLWS. THIS WANES AFTER SUNRISE AS THE OVERALL BACKGROUND FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS WELL.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, BUT PROFILES ARE RATHER DRY OVERALL. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...BROWN
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