278
FXUS63 KIWX 152226
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
526 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT COULD BEGIN AS
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS NORTH OF US-30 BUT IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
- MORE RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY PREPARING TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST
NOTABLE (ALBEIT GRADUAL AT FIRST) IMPACT WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE COLDEST AIR WILL LAG JUST A BIT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT GIVEN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR NE. AS A RESULT, A
STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT FROM THE 60S TO
THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER LAND AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MIXES DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW, CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PUSHED INLAND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DIVING
SOUTH FROM ALASKA. AS IT WORKS TOWARDS THE REGION IT WILL ENCOUNTER
DECENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH WILL DAMPEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE SOMEWHAT. DESPITE THIS, A 90 KT JET STREAK WILL PERSIST WITH
THE FEATURE AS WELL AS A DECENT LLJ (35 TO 40 KTS) TO ALLOW IT TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF AND POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN JUST A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT (AFTER 6Z) WITH THE PEAK FORCING BETWEEN 9Z AND 18Z. PTYPE AT
THE ONSET IN NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SEEM TO LEAN
TOWARDS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IF THE PRECIP STARTS PRIOR TO 15Z (LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS POINT). WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX IN THESE AREAS, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WED INTO THU AS THE NEXT,
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SLOWLY EDGES EAST. UNLIKE THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM, THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP GULF MOISTURE, WHICH
WILL ADVECT NORTH BY LATE THU INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES NW OF THE REGION FRIDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN (AT LEAST INTO THE 50S) AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WAS CAUSING STRONG WINDS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA INCLUDING THE TAF
SITES. THE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE PARTIALLY THIS EVENING, HELPING
TO LIMIT WIND GUSTS. THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE CHANGE IN
THE WIND DIRECTION FROM 280 TO 310. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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