775
FXUS63 KIWX 161527
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1027 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 40S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TONIGHT, THEN UPPER 20S
AND 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.
TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF PLANNING TO DO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TODAY
AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD.
- RAIN IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SNOW MAY MIX
IN BRIEFLY EARLY TUESDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF US 30. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MAIN FOCUS ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. DEWPOINTS IN SW PARTS OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DROPPING AS MID TEEN DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OUT OF
IL AND WI. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MI IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND THIS COMMENCE IN FAR SW
AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
OBVIOUSLY A CONCERN WITH A HIGH LIKIHOOD OF LEAF/BRUSH BURNING
IN SOME AREAS NEXT TO DRY GRASSES AND OTHER FUELS (ESPECIALLY IN
DROUGHT AREAS). A SAVING GRACE FROM A MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN
IS THE FACT OF AIR TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S TO MAYBE NEAR 50 IN THE
SE. THIS WON'T STOP FIRES BY ANY MEANS, BUT WILL FORCE A FIRE
TO WORK HARDER TO BUILD HEAT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION, BUT ANY BURNING
(IF ALLOWED) SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXITING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, GUSTS HAVE BEEN UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH
AT TIMES, AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
SKIES TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20-45 PERCENT, LOWEST VALUES FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST NEAR WHITE COUNTY, IN. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN IN/NW OHIO COUNTIES
GIVEN THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN SOME FORM OF DROUGHT, WITH EXTREME
DROUGHT IN NW OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IN. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SAW LESS PRECIPITATION
IN THE PREVIOUS EVENT. DIDN'T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE IN SPLITTING UP
THE AREA-AS IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL WE SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THUS RH'S THAN FORECASTED.
WITH THIS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, GRASSES AND LEAF LITTER COULD BE DRY
AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO IGNITION. TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF PLANNING TO DO ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING TODAY AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED, BUT IS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT WITH SOMEWHAT
RIDGED FLOW ALOFT. STILL, WE'LL SEE A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LATE MON NIGHT (AT EARLIEST) INTO TUESDAY THAT PROVIDES ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, HAVE RAIN MOST
PROBABLE, HOWEVER EXPECT THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PERIOD OF
ALL SNOW BRIEFLY TUE AM BEFORE TEMPS WARM INTO THE AFTERNOON. LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED (IF ANY), AND IT
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SLUSHY GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN THAT
FOLLOWS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S (FAR NE)
AND LOW-MID 30S (FAR SW), WITH HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOW-MID 40S (CLOSE TO 50 FURTHER SOUTH OF US 30 AND
WEST OF I 69).
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO
SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH (POSSIBLE-AROUND 20% OR LESS WED
AFTERNOON-EVENING). HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WARMEST SOUTH OF US 30). LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIVES FURTHER EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC
THROUGH THU/FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS (EASTERN GULF/ATLANTIC). MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONFLICTED OVER THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS EITHER IN THE SOUTHWEST
OR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND WED PM-THU AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CWA OR JUST NORTH/WEST OF OUR CWA THU EVE
THROUGH EARLY SAT AM. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY THU-FRI,SO IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT
THIS JUNCTURE. THE BEST FORCING LIFTS OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON-
SUNDAY, SO POPS DIMINISH BY THEN AND HIGH TEMPS DROP BACK
TOWARDS THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
EXISTING TAFS WERE ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST METARS. BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADEQUATE
MIXING BEYOND 900MB, YIELDING GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. WIND
SUBSIDES AFTER SUNSET.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BROWN
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