557
FXUS63 KIWX 260923
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
REACHING 55 MPH.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEAVIEST NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD WHERE 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY.
- PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RACING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WAS NEARING THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER AT
330 AM EST. STRONG WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
WERE OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY. GIVEN THESE
STRONG WINDS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR
THANKSGIVING PER HRRR, BUT GIVEN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON
THANKSGIVING, IT WILL FEEL BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY TODAY GIVEN LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES > +10C UPSTREAM OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A SOMEWHAT LIMITED WEST FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKE. HOWEVER, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GENERALLY 3" TO 6" OF SNOW NORTH OF THE TOLL
ROAD BY LATE THANKSGIVING DAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. ABOUT THE
TIME THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDS LATE FRIDAY, SYSTEM SNOW WILL
SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA, SO HAVE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX STARTING FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MUCH MORE DETAIL WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WINTRY
MIX THIS WEEKEND AS THE TIME DRAWS NEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL INDIANA TO BEGIN THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MIXED LAYER DEEPENS IN POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY MID-LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE SOMEWHAT SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED CIGS IS EXPECTED
WITH DRY SLOT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
COLD ADVECTION MVFR STRATOCU WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS DURING
THE DAY WITH CIGS OF 1000-2000 FT LIKELY. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL BY LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF
THE TOLL ROAD. THIS FETCH WILL PUT KSBN ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
MOST FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF LOWER VSBY/CIGS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS AT KSBN. THE PERIOD OF POTENTIAL GREATEST IMPACTS AT KSBN
COULD BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY
TEMPO IFR VSBY GROUP FOR KSBN. OTHERWISE, A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT TERMINALS BRIEFLY TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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