496
FXUS63 KIWX 261141
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
REACHING 55 MPH.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEAVIEST NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD WHERE 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY.
- PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RACING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WAS NEARING THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER AT
330 AM EST. STRONG WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
WERE OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY. GIVEN THESE
STRONG WINDS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOR
THANKSGIVING PER HRRR, BUT GIVEN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON
THANKSGIVING, IT WILL FEEL BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY TODAY GIVEN LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES > +10C UPSTREAM OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A SOMEWHAT LIMITED WEST FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKE. HOWEVER, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GENERALLY 3" TO 6" OF SNOW NORTH OF THE TOLL
ROAD BY LATE THANKSGIVING DAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. ABOUT THE
TIME THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDS LATE FRIDAY, SYSTEM SNOW WILL
SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA, SO HAVE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX STARTING FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
MUCH MORE DETAIL WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WINTRY
MIX THIS WEEKEND AS THE TIME DRAWS NEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THIS
DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER RH
PROFILES TO SHIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE KSBN VICINITY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SETUP WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN IS ON THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN
CRITICAL WESTERLY FETCH PROFILES. DID TRY AND ISOLATE A MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR BEST KSBN POTENTIAL WHEN
DEEPER RH PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC
FORCING. THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BELOW 2K
FEET AT KSBN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR WEST-
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND 40+ KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTS DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page