241
FXUS63 KIWX 262356
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST WINDS RELAXING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- BLUSTERY AND COLD ON THANKSGIVING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, HEAVIEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WHERE HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BEST CHANCES (80%) NORTH OF US 24.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
OCCLUDE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY THANKSGIVING DAY. TIGHT LOW
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLANK
WILL KEEP STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND BRISK WIND CHILLS AS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER STORY INTO TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. GUSTS IN THE 40-50
MPH RANGE TODAY WILL EASE A BIT INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY (GUSTS TO
35 MPH) AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. WIND CHILLS DROP
INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES OTHERWISE.
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITHIN COLD, CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR BETTER FLAKE SIZE AND SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. SLIGHT VEERING TO CLOUD BEARING WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME MINOR ACCUMS
AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO PLACES LIKE SOUTH BEND,
ELKHART, ANGOLA AND COLDWATER. BY THIS TIME, A TURBULENT CLOUD LAYER
AND STRONG FLOW WILL TREND TO DISRUPT THE SNOW GROWTH PROCESS
SHATTERING LARGER SNOWFLAKES AND KEEPING SNOW RATIOS IN CHECK. THIS
LIKELY LIMITS SNOW ACCUMS, HOWEVER SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS
PROBABLY RESULT IN TIMES OF POOR VISIBILITY AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.
MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES (RETAINED WW.Y IN SOUTHWEST MI), BUT
FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR SURROUNDING COUNTIES FOR A LOW
END WW.Y OR SPS. LES THEN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC
FLOW BREAKS DOWN AND WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ATTENTION THIS WEEKEND THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AS STRONG MOIST/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, THEN MAKING THE TURN EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION UNDER INCOMING MID
LEVEL DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL DRIVE THIS BLOSSOMING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES BEGINNING AS SNOW. A SURFACE LOW TRACK WEST
OR OVER THE AREA WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER WITH
DRIZZLE/RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR. LATEST GEFS AND ECS GUIDANCE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 80-90% OF MEMBERS HAVING 3" OR MORE OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION (10:1 RATIO) NORTH OF US 24. THIS ALONG WITH
SOME AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS (SEE THE MORE DYNAMIC AND JUICED 12Z
OP ECMWF) BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEADLINE LEVEL EVENT
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL 3 DAYS AWAY AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FINER DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLIDE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS A
MODERATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SOME EXTENT FROM 00Z TO 15Z
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE'S A NOTICEABLE
SURGE SOUTHWARD OF THE VORT AND A RE-MOISTENING OF THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTEN
RETURNS JUST AFTER 00Z THU NIGHT, BUT A QUICK DRYING OUT OF THE
COLUMN ENSUES AFTERWARDS. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS
AT SBN, BUT WITH PREVAILING VFR AND TIMES OF MVFR AT FWA THROUGH
TOMORROW.
LOOK FOR WEST WINDS TO SLACKEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING, BUT 20 TO 30 GUSTS MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-
177-277.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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