895
FXUS63 KIWX 270841
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- BLUSTERY AND COLD TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW WAS FALLING
MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH RELATIVELY MILD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE. INDICATIONS
WERE THAT THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. THE SNOW WILL FINALLY END FRIDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
WITH MILD AIR REACHING THE AREA IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER.
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SNOW AS SYSTEM SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL DEEPEN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEARLY
ENTIRELY IN THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE SNOW STARTING EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. SOME MILD LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM LIMA
TO PORTLAND TO MARION. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO AT TIMES
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAKEN ON A MORE CELLULAR, LESS
ORGANIZED APPEARANCE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BULK OF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW PRODUCTION
LAYER HAS DRIED OUT SOME SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS
HELPED AID THIS MORE CELLULAR MODE. A REINFORCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AROUND MIDDAY BRINGING A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND
MOISTENING OF SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH KSBN LIKELY ON WESTERN
EXTENT OF MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE, WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. KFWA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN FLURRIES MODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOW TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ACROSS QUEBEC, AND
PRESENCE OF THIS LOW AND A STRONG ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF MORE SHARPLY AS WE HEAD AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR LOW CLOUDS CIGS WILL
BE INTERRUPTED BY SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT
RANGE, PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-
177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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