173
FXUS63 KIWX 271130
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- BLUSTERY AND COLD TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW WAS FALLING
MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH RELATIVELY MILD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE. INDICATIONS
WERE THAT THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. THE SNOW WILL FINALLY END FRIDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
WITH MILD AIR REACHING THE AREA IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER.
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SNOW AS SYSTEM SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL DEEPEN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEARLY
ENTIRELY IN THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE SNOW STARTING EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. SOME MILD LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM LIMA
TO PORTLAND TO MARION. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO AT TIMES
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A DISORGANIZED CELLULAR
MODE THIS MORNING. DEPTH OF MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED FETCH
APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING A REINFORCING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTHS WILL
INCREASE AS THIS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ORGANIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FETCH
CONSIDERATIONS STILL SUGGEST KSBN MAY BE ON WESTERN FRINGE OF
MORE NOTABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT DO FEEL A WINDOW OF
TEMPO IFR VSBYS APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY REACH KFWA
TONIGHT, BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH FORECAST PROFILES SUGGESTING 30 KNOT GUST
POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
FLUCTUATE IN THE 2500-3500 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CIGS BELOW FUEL ALTERNATE CRITERIA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-
177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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