714
FXUS63 KIWX 271714
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1214 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- BLUSTERY AND COLD TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW WAS FALLING
MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH RELATIVELY MILD LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE. INDICATIONS
WERE THAT THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. THE SNOW WILL FINALLY END FRIDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL
WITH MILD AIR REACHING THE AREA IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER.
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SNOW AS SYSTEM SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE CLOUD LAYER
WILL DEEPEN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEARLY
ENTIRELY IN THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE SNOW STARTING EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. SOME MILD LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM LIMA
TO PORTLAND TO MARION. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO AT TIMES
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A DISORGANIZED CELLULAR
MODE. DEPTH OF MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED FETCH APPEAR TO BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SETUP. BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTHS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORGANIZATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KSBN CONTINUES TO BE ON WESTERN
FRINGE OF MORE NOTABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHER END
IFR VSBYS AROUND 2SM PERSISTING. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ARE ALSO REACHING KFWA, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHER END MVFR
OR VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-
177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI/COBB
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