697
FXUS63 KIWX 272015
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
315 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- BLUSTERY AND COLD TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AND THE MAIN
CELLULAR LES BANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. A FEW BURSTS
OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF SR-6. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER
TO THE AREA.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALL
SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL PUSH
A WARM NOSE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHICH WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THOSE LOCALS. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST ALL SNOW ALBEIT MORE OF THE WET VARIETY WILL BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS WILL BRING
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH
WILL ALSO SEE A MORE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LOW CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 2 INCHES OR SO OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OF COURSE, WITH A MORE WET
SNOW WITH THE WARM NOSE MOVING OVER THE REGION SNOW ON THE
GROUND WILL LIKELY COMPACT IN A MORE SLUSHY BASE QUICKLY WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE ULTIMATE GROUND MEASUREMENTS, SO WOULD BE
ADVISABLE TO MEASURE OFTEN AND EARLY DURING THE EVENT. WITH THE
HOLIDAY TRAVEL WE DID WANT TO PUSH THE MESSAGING A BIT HARDER AS
THE ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AND TRAVEL TIMES GREATLY IMPACTED
DURING THIS STORM. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS FOR THE POST
MAIN SNOWFALL EVENT, THE ROADS, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS,
MAY BECOME VERY SLICK WITH COLDER AIR USHERING IN ON THE HEELS
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD FREEZE THE WET SLUSHY SNOW ON ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL. LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR FUTURE NECESSARY PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A DISORGANIZED CELLULAR
MODE. DEPTH OF MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIMITED FETCH APPEAR TO BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SETUP. BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE DEPTHS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ADVECTS INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORGANIZATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KSBN CONTINUES TO BE ON WESTERN
FRINGE OF MORE NOTABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHER END
IFR VSBYS AROUND 2SM PERSISTING. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ARE ALSO REACHING KFWA, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHER END MVFR
OR VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079-
177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...COBB
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