680
FXUS63 KIWX 280531
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1231 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US-24.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND
THIS WAVE, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY PRODUCING A MORE
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO
CLIMB SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AN UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT A TRUE SINGLE DOMINANT
BAND BUT HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A FEW STRONGER BANDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITHIN OVERALL CELLULAR LES. THESE COULD
PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION FROM ROUGHLY
CASS CO (MI) TO DEKALB COUNTY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4" ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF A STRONGER BAND DEVELOPS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND THOSE AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY ISOLATED.
THEREFORE, NO PLANS TO EXPAND THE EXISTING ADVISORY BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF US-30 TO COVER BRIEF VIS
REDUCTION AND POSSIBLE SLICK ROADS THROUGH THE EARLY FRI AM
COMMUTE. THESE LES BANDS MAY EXTEND WELL INLAND, PERHAPS
REACHING INTO OUR NW OH COUNTIES AT TIMES.
NO CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST/HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AND THE MAIN
CELLULAR LES BANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. A FEW BURSTS
OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF SR-6. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER
TO THE AREA.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH COLD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALL
SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL PUSH
A WARM NOSE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHICH WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THOSE LOCALS. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST ALL SNOW ALBEIT MORE OF THE WET VARIETY WILL BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS WILL BRING
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH
WILL ALSO SEE A MORE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LOW CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT 2 INCHES OR SO OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AND POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OF COURSE, WITH A MORE WET
SNOW WITH THE WARM NOSE MOVING OVER THE REGION SNOW ON THE
GROUND WILL LIKELY COMPACT IN A MORE SLUSHY BASE QUICKLY WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE ULTIMATE GROUND MEASUREMENTS, SO WOULD BE
ADVISABLE TO MEASURE OFTEN AND EARLY DURING THE EVENT. WITH THE
HOLIDAY TRAVEL WE DID WANT TO PUSH THE MESSAGING A BIT HARDER AS
THE ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AND TRAVEL TIMES GREATLY IMPACTED
DURING THIS STORM. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS FOR THE POST
MAIN SNOWFALL EVENT, THE ROADS, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS,
MAY BECOME VERY SLICK WITH COLDER AIR USHERING IN ON THE HEELS
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD FREEZE THE WET SLUSHY SNOW ON ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL. LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR FUTURE NECESSARY PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE HIGH VARIABILITY IN SNOW
INTENSITY AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES. IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS AS OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078-
079-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ046.
UPDATE...AGD
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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