887
FXUS63 KIWX 301809
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR NORTH
CENTRAL IN AND SOUTHWEST MI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH TIMES OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL (SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES).
- A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-4") MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- REMAINING COLD THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
LOW LEVEL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR FAR NORTHERN
IN AND SOUTHWEST MI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LAKE PARAMETERS ARE
GOOD WITH 700MB/LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE MID 20S AND A
DECENTLY MOIST DGZ ON THE BACKSIDE OF LAST NIGHT'S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE, THOUGH ANY BANDING SHOULD BE TRANSIENT WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTS POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING
THROUGH 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REDUCTIONS IN VISBYS AND HEAVIER
1"/HR SNOW RATES WITHIN ANY BANDED ELEMENTS. COUNTIES BORDERING THE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF IMPACTS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DEEPER QG SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING/DIMINISHING LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARRIVE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO
ANY MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. A LIGHTER SNOW THIS TIME AS BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN IS DELAYED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN
SIGNAL OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED
DGZ. A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST
MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MESOBANDING COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WITH REDUCED STABILITY NOTED ABOVE THE FGEN
CIRCULATION IN MODEL XSECTIONS.
BROAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO LINGER MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PERIODIC PRECIP (MAINLY SNOW) CHANCES AS
NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES TAKE AIM ON THE REGION. A MOISTURE
STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DOES DROP A COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ITS MAIN IMPACT BEING A
RENEWED SHOT OF COLD AIR. ADDITIONAL WAVES EJECTING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE LATE FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AS IT
SLINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD FWA, REACHING THERE BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z.
CAN SEE FWA GETTING MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM THAT. WE'LL ALSO BE
WATCHING ANOTHER BAND FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
THAT'LL BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT SBN.
CONDITIONS MAY LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR FWA AS IT REACHES THEM
AROUND 00Z OR SO. GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON TO MORE LIKE 20 TO 30 MPH. WITH THIS FREEZE ALLOTMENT
OF SNOW, SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING ON N-S ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND WE COULD SEE SOME REFREEZING OF WET SPOTS ON PAVEMENT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. EXPECT MODERATION BACK
INTO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR FWA AND
EARLIER FOR SBN. EXPECT LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ005-006-103-104-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078-
079-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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