889
FXUS63 KIWX 030843
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING FOG EARLY TODAY, LIMITED/LOCAL IMPACTS.
- LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT, MOST AREAS <=1".
- WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL TO -5 TO -10.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SUNDAY (<=1" LIMITED/LOCAL
IMPACTS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WAS PREVAILING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING GENERALLY BELOW 2
MILES. THE FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
FORM AT GENERALLY 300 TO 700 FEET. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FRIEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT
BEEN REPORTED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT; HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD
LAYER BELOW THE DGZ. ANY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY
LATE MORNING.
MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THERE IS A LARGE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT SHOULD HELP
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 1 INCH OR
LESS EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF SBN WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REACH 2
INCHES. ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALMOST
UNEQUIVOCALLY BELOW FREEZING. THE LAST 5 DAYS THROUGH DECEMBER
1ST AVERAGED ONLY 24.6 DEGREES (FWA) WHICH WAS THE COLDEST FOR
THIS PERIOD SINCE 1976. GIVEN THE HUGE GFS NEGATIVE 500 HEIGHT
ANOMALY (240 METERS) DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GIVEN
PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN, CAN FIND NO REASON TO OBJECT TO
TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK. AFTER
COORDINATION, LOWERED BLEND TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY BY 2 DEGREES
GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING. WE HAVE HAD THE COLDEST END TO NOV/
EARLY START TO DEC IN 130 YEARS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
IFR CEILINGS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST DENSE AROUND THE I-69 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING
KFWA, WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS 2-3 MILES AT TIMES
THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR VISIBILITIES
IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, PEAKING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SNOW
ARRIVES AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND AFTER 21Z AT KFWA. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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