998
FXUS63 KIWX 031035
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
535 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING FOG EARLY TODAY, LIMITED/LOCAL IMPACTS.
- LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT, MOST AREAS <=1".
- WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL TO -5 TO -10.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SUNDAY (<=1" LIMITED/LOCAL
IMPACTS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WAS PREVAILING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING GENERALLY BELOW 2
MILES. THE FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
FORM AT GENERALLY 300 TO 700 FEET. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FRIEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT
BEEN REPORTED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT; HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD
LAYER BELOW THE DGZ. ANY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY
LATE MORNING.
MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THERE IS A LARGE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT SHOULD HELP
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 1 INCH OR
LESS EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF SBN WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REACH 2
INCHES. ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALMOST
UNEQUIVOCALLY BELOW FREEZING. THE LAST 5 DAYS THROUGH DECEMBER
1ST AVERAGED ONLY 24.6 DEGREES (FWA) WHICH WAS THE COLDEST FOR
THIS PERIOD SINCE 1976. GIVEN THE HUGE GFS NEGATIVE 500 HEIGHT
ANOMALY (240 METERS) DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GIVEN
PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN, CAN FIND NO REASON TO OBJECT TO
TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK. AFTER
COORDINATION, LOWERED BLEND TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY BY 2 DEGREES
GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING. WE HAVE HAD THE COLDEST END TO NOV/
EARLY START TO DEC IN 130 YEARS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS. PATCHY FOG IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT IT HAS BEEN RATHER TRANSIENT AND
VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 5-8 MILES. WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY, PEAKING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SNOW ARRIVES AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND AFTER
21Z AT KFWA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE DONE BY 03-06Z THURSDAY AND
WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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