840
FXUS63 KIWX 031701
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1201 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT, MOST AREAS <=1".
- WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SUNDAY (<=1" LIMITED/LOCAL
IMPACTS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT 10 TO 15 MPH WAS PREVAILING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING GENERALLY BELOW 2
MILES. THE FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
FORM AT GENERALLY 300 TO 700 FEET. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FRIEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT
BEEN REPORTED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT; HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE ENTIRE CLOUD
LAYER BELOW THE DGZ. ANY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY
LATE MORNING.
MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THERE IS A LARGE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT SHOULD HELP
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 1 INCH OR
LESS EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF SBN WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REACH 2
INCHES. ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALMOST
UNEQUIVOCALLY BELOW FREEZING. THE LAST 5 DAYS THROUGH DECEMBER
1ST AVERAGED ONLY 24.6 DEGREES (FWA) WHICH WAS THE COLDEST FOR
THIS PERIOD SINCE 1976. GIVEN THE HUGE GFS NEGATIVE 500 HEIGHT
ANOMALY (240 METERS) DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND GIVEN
PERSISTENCE IN THIS PATTERN, CAN FIND NO REASON TO OBJECT TO
TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CPC 6-10 OUTLOOK. AFTER
COORDINATION, LOWERED BLEND TEMPS NEXT WEDNESDAY BY 2 DEGREES
GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING. WE HAVE HAD THE COLDEST END TO NOV/
EARLY START TO DEC IN 130 YEARS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND UPPER END OF IFR AND LOWER
END OF MVFR AS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE, BUT STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC
ARE LIMITING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS POINT. MAIN CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST, 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY LARGE DRY LAYER ABOVE THIS AREA AND BELOW THE DGZ,
LENDING TO CONCERNS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP MAY OCCUR. ONLY PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME IS IN WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS HELPING WITH THE DRY LAYER. HAVE OPTED
FOR A TEMPO GROUP AT KSBN FOR NOW AND A PROB30 AT KFWA FOR
HANDLING POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW AS CAMS ARE JUST NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SETUP. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, CIGS WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR (DUE TO NW FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AT KSBN) AND POSSIBLY VFR AT KFWA FURTHER FROM THE LAKE
INFLUENCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
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