877
FXUS63 KIWX 032031
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT, MOST AREAS LESS
THAN 1 INCH. SOME FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND LIMITED IMPACTS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN A LINE
ACROSS CENTRAL MI INTO NORTHERN IL AND ULTIMATELY CENTRAL MO
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND IS ALREADY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH BEND AREA.
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS ALSO OBSERVED AND THIS CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF A THIN WARM AIR NOSE INVERSION ACROSS THE
LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEING
ENTRAINED/LIFTED INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS HAS ALSO KEPT
THE STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WILL ALSO
KEEP THE HAZY/MISTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO USHER
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ON THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN SEEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY ON THAN ELSEWHERE DUE TO
BEING MODIFIED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S CURRENTLY. THIS MODIFICATION WILL BE
REDUCED AS WINDS SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS ALSO
WILL DECREASE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WITH LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST
IN AND FAR NORTHWEST OH POTENTIALLY SEEING SUBZERO SINGLE
DIGITS. WIND CHILLS IN THESE AREAS MAY SEE -5 TO -10 DEGREE WIND
CHILLS. THE SAVING GRACE HERE IN THE WIND CHILL DEPARTMENT WILL
BE THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MINIMIZING THE IMPACT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE STILL SPLITTING HAIRS AS IT WILL BE VERY
COLD AND IF GOING OUTDOORS FRIDAY MORNING DRESS ACCORDINGLY AND
COVER ANY EXPOSED SKIN TO PREVENT FROSTBITE. ALSO KEEP YOUR PETS
AND LIVESTOCK IN MIND WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 20S. YES, ONLY A MINOR
IMPROVEMENT. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SOME LES SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY
GET INTO THE LOWER 20S. THIS COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE SOME ISENTROPIC WARMING AND INCREASE CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL FOR REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME LES ENHANCEMENT FOR
AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY BRING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING POINT AND MAY SLIGHTLY SURPASS IT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND UPPER END OF IFR AND LOWER
END OF MVFR AS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE, BUT STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC
ARE LIMITING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS POINT. MAIN CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST, 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY LARGE DRY LAYER ABOVE THIS AREA AND BELOW THE DGZ,
LENDING TO CONCERNS AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP MAY OCCUR. ONLY PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME IS IN WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS HELPING WITH THE DRY LAYER. HAVE OPTED
FOR A TEMPO GROUP AT KSBN FOR NOW AND A PROB30 AT KFWA FOR
HANDLING POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW AS CAMS ARE JUST NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SETUP. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, CIGS WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR (DUE TO NW FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AT KSBN) AND POSSIBLY VFR AT KFWA FURTHER FROM THE LAKE
INFLUENCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...FISHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page