896
FXUS63 KIWX 041040
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
540 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO END BEFORE DAYBREAK.
- LOWS NEAR ZERO TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS -5 TO -15.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TOTAL AN INCH OR
LESS ACCUMULATION ACCOMPANIED BY FEW IF ANY IMPACTS.
- LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY AT TIMES THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE SNOW MAY
BE MIXED WITH RAIN. SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A SNOW MIX WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE GIVEN THE TOP OF THE CLOUD IN THE DGZ. THE REMAINING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE
COLD PATTERN CONTINUES. CONDITIONS OVERALL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE GIVEN A LIMITED SOUTHWEST TO WEST FETCH
(ALTHOUGH A BRIEF NORTHWEST FETCH IS LIKELY). HOWEVER, LAKE
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 40S (THE LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS SUGGEST
MID LAKE TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C), .
OTHERWISE, A VERY COLD SIGNAL CONTINUES WITH THE GFS. THE
LATEST (00Z) RUN CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGE NEGATIVE 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE DURING THIS TIME,
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH -12C AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
INTRUSION REACHES THE AREA. LOCAL DATA INDICATES FT WAYNE HAS
HAD THE COLDEST LAST 7 DAY PERIOD (FROM NOV 27 TO DECEMBER 3RD
IN NEARLY 50 YEARS) WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 24.2 DEGREES.
THIS COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AS
DRY AIR COMES IN AND THE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS
HAVE GRADUALLY RISEN OVERNIGHT FROM LOW END MVFR TO LOW END VFR,
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE COULD BE TIMES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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