812
FXUS63 KIWX 050904
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
404 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EARLY TODAY WITH PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END AND THE FOG WILL LIFT
BEFORE NOON.
- CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN EVEN COLDER MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WINDS CHILL DROPPING TO -10 AT TIMES.
- LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES. IMPACTS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
CLEAR SKIES IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS, LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER
WERE ALLOWING EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 3 AM EDT, FT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND WERE JUST A
FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE NEAR ZERO.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW AND THE AIRMASS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS MODIFIES AND MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK, SATURATION IS
PARTIAL AND SHALLOW AND THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
TIME. THE LATEST GFS SNOW AMOUNT ANALYSIS FAVORS AROUND 1"
THROUGH SUNDAY (>70% CHANCE).
JUST STARTING DAY 9 OF THE ANOMALOUSLY VERY COLD PATTERN WHERE AT
FWA THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE PAST 8 DAYS HAS AVERAGED 12.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE TEMPERATURE WAS ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MIDNIGHT AND
JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE 130 YEAR OLD RECORD OF -2. THIS
TEMPERATURE TIES FOR THE COLDEST THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER AND IS A
REFLECTION OF THE COLD PATTERN. THE LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD PATTERN NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MODERATION SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO FREEZING
BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION ARRIVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL BETWEEN 8-12Z OF LIFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KSBN THANKS TO BR/FZFG. KFWA MAY DROP AS WELL,
BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW GIVEN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS IT LIMITED TO MVFR FOR A SHORT DURATION AROUND 9-11Z.
DELAYED THE DROP TO MVFR/LIFR AT KSBN FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE AS
THE RECENT OBS HAVE LINGERED BETWEEN 7-9SM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
AROUND 8Z INTO 12Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MCD
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