146
FXUS63 KIWX 051151
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN EVEN COLDER MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WINDS CHILL DROPPING TO -10 AT TIMES.
- LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES. IMPACTS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
CLEAR SKIES IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS, LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER
WERE ALLOWING EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 3 AM EDT, FT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND WERE JUST A
FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE NEAR ZERO.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW AND THE AIRMASS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS MODIFIES AND MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK, SATURATION IS
PARTIAL AND SHALLOW AND THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
TIME. THE LATEST GFS SNOW AMOUNT ANALYSIS FAVORS AROUND 1"
THROUGH SUNDAY (>70% CHANCE).
JUST STARTING DAY 9 OF THE ANOMALOUSLY VERY COLD PATTERN WHERE AT
FWA THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE PAST 8 DAYS HAS AVERAGED 12.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE TEMPERATURE WAS ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MIDNIGHT AND
JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE 130 YEAR OLD RECORD OF -2. THIS
TEMPERATURE TIES FOR THE COLDEST THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER AND IS A
REFLECTION OF THE COLD PATTERN. THE LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD PATTERN NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MODERATION SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO FREEZING
BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION ARRIVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KFWA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY THIS MORNING, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AT
2500 FT ARE POSSIBLE. AREA OF STRATUS TO THE SOUTH (BKN025) IS
EXPANDING NORTH AND EASTWARD SLOWLY, WITH ONLY SCATTERED 2000
REPORTED AT KFWA AS OF THIS WRITING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
BROKEN CEILINGS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL, SO HAVE A TEMPO
THROUGH 13Z TO COVER THAT. OTHERWISE, MVFR TONIGHT AT KSBN AS WE
SEE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA (LARGELY 6-12Z). KFWA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MCD
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