706
FXUS63 KIWX 051759
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN EVEN COLDER MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WINDS CHILL DROPPING TO -10 AT TIMES.
- LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES. IMPACTS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
CLEAR SKIES IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS, LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVER
WERE ALLOWING EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS OF 3 AM EDT, FT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND WERE JUST A
FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE NEAR ZERO.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WERE TOO LOW AND THE AIRMASS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS MODIFIES AND MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK, SATURATION IS
PARTIAL AND SHALLOW AND THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
TIME. THE LATEST GFS SNOW AMOUNT ANALYSIS FAVORS AROUND 1"
THROUGH SUNDAY (>70% CHANCE).
JUST STARTING DAY 9 OF THE ANOMALOUSLY VERY COLD PATTERN WHERE AT
FWA THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE PAST 8 DAYS HAS AVERAGED 12.5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE TEMPERATURE WAS ALREADY NEAR ZERO AT MIDNIGHT AND
JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE 130 YEAR OLD RECORD OF -2. THIS
TEMPERATURE TIES FOR THE COLDEST THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER AND IS A
REFLECTION OF THE COLD PATTERN. THE LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD PATTERN NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
MODERATION SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO FREEZING
BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION ARRIVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
MAIN CHALLENGE FOCUSES ON A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT
WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPSTREAM OBS IN SOUTHERN MN LEAN
MAINLY TOWARDS -SN, BUT THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF UP OR EVEN
"RAIN" THAT SUGGESTS MAYBE SOME MIX COULD OCCUR. WHILE LOWERING
COULD BE A BIT PREMATURE, MODELS SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARDS
DECREASING PRECIP TRENDS AS IT REACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. OPTED
TO DROP KSBN TO A PROB30 FOR THE FZDZ AND SN FOR NOW. IF
ANYTHING OCCURS IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF, BUT COULD CAUSE A FEW
MINOR ISSUES AT KSBN FOR RUNWAYS. KFWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
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