204
FXUS63 KIWX 060556
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN EVEN COLDER MONDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO -5 TO -10 AT TIMES.
- LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED.
- ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH BY MIDWEEK AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AND EVEN SOME RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT TIMES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BELOW THE ARCTIC LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY
CANADA. THIS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX IN
WITH THE WARMER AIR FROM OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND
IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SNOWFALL, THERE MAY BE A SHORT
PERIOD WITH THE ONSET THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXES IN BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW. WITH THIS SYSTEM WE ARE LOOKING AT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO AROUND 3 INCHES. THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
ON THE AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION PUSHES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BRINGS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
AREA WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE
RANGE WITH LUCKILY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FORECASTED.
WE THEN HAVE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WE WILL SEE A
PARADE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOWFALL WITH EVEN A MIX OF RAINFALL
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER (THICKER) SYNOPTIC HEIGHTS THAT WILL
ALSO BRING SOME WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING TO THE MID 30S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT LED TO SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND PERHAPS PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR KSBN, AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. VFR
CEILINGS PERSIST AS OF THIS WRITING, BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TO
AROUND 1500-2500 FT AT BOTH TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS (FIRST AT KSBN)-AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS (WI/IL)SHOW CEILINGS IN THIS RANGE, WITH
SOME DROPPING TO AROUND 1KFT. HAVE VCSH WITH A PROB30 FOR
POTENTIAL SNOW/FZDZ AT KSBN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THEN
REMAINING DRY AT KFWA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS DEEPER
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MCD
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