869
FXUS63 KIWX 061400
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT BRIEFLY COLDER
MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER 20S. MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND NEXT
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM PIA TO ORD OVERNIGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDING GIVEN A RELATIVE WARM
COLD LAYER (-5C). SURFACE REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
PRECIPITATION AND RETURNS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE CLOUD LAYER WITH SUBSIDENCE ABOVE WILL HELP
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
TWO MORE REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL BRING RETURNS OF ARCTIC
AIR THIS WEEKEND. INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER, SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPER TO LAKE FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDING FAVOR 2-3" OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
THIS WEEKEND WITH LESS THAN AN INCH AT LIMA. THE SECOND SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING THAT THESE 2 NIGHTS WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES,
BUT CAN BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO MAKE IT CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN
FALL AGAIN LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE. HIGHS
BY SATURDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 20 DEGREES. DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE DATA APPEARS
TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW THIS WEEKEND, BUT INDICATES
ABOUT 3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WPC WINTER WEATHER FORECAST DOES SHOW A 10-30%
CHANCE OF MELTED SNOW >=0.25 (WATER EQUIVALENT).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KSBN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 HAVE OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF POCKETS OF
VFR (AS SEEN OVER KGYY/KIGQ AS OF THIS WRITING). IT'S POSSIBLE
WE SEE A DROP IN VISIBILITY WITH SOME BR THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH (SOME OF GUIDANCE HAD AN HOUR OF 4-5SM)
HOWEVER LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST,
WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY KSBN (KFWA TOWARDS 12Z).
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES BRING KSBN DOWN TO 2SM FOR
VISIBILITIES, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AROUND 4SM SO WENT
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MCD
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