992
FXUS63 KIWX 061741
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1241 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT BRIEFLY COLDER
MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER 20S. MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND NEXT
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM PIA TO ORD OVERNIGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDING GIVEN A RELATIVE WARM
COLD LAYER (-5C). SURFACE REPORTS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
PRECIPITATION AND RETURNS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE CLOUD LAYER WITH SUBSIDENCE ABOVE WILL HELP
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
TWO MORE REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL BRING RETURNS OF ARCTIC
AIR THIS WEEKEND. INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER, SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPER TO LAKE FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDING FAVOR 2-3" OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
THIS WEEKEND WITH LESS THAN AN INCH AT LIMA. THE SECOND SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING THAT THESE 2 NIGHTS WILL NOT NEED HEADLINES,
BUT CAN BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO MAKE IT CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN
FALL AGAIN LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE. HIGHS
BY SATURDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 20 DEGREES. DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE DATA APPEARS
TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW THIS WEEKEND, BUT INDICATES
ABOUT 3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WPC WINTER WEATHER FORECAST DOES SHOW A 10-30%
CHANCE OF MELTED SNOW >=0.25 (WATER EQUIVALENT).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
POCKET OF CLEARING IMPACTING KFWA WITH VARIABLE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS (VFR/MVFR) AT THIS TIME. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. KSBN WAS RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE BREAK SO
A FEW EXCURSIONS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR 2.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ADVANCE
TOWARDS KSBN IN THE 7-9Z SUN TIME FRAME AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT
KFWA. GREATEST FLIGHT IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT KSBN WHERE
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH
IMPACT KFWA MAY SEE FROM THIS WITH SOME SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS AND
MAYBE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WHILE OTHERS SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME MESOBANDING AS THE LAST OF THE ENERGY FIZZLES.
HAVE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KSBN AND
NEAR OR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE PERIOD AT KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
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