722
FXUS63 KIWX 160512
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1212 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
MIXING OR ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- WINDY AND BRIEFLY COLDER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
WARMING TEMPS REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH THURSDAY AS PACIFIC AIR
FLOODS THE LOWER 48 UNDER A MORE PROGRESSIVE, QUASI-ZONAL, FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK EAST WITHIN THIS FLOW, WITH A
TUESDAY NIGHT IMPULSE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SENDING A
WEAKENING FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND
ASCENT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DOES CLIP THE AREA, THOUGH MOST OF THIS
FORCING WILL GO TO MID-UPPER LEVEL SATURATION WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED GIVEN A NOTABLE DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB.
THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE WILL BE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED ENCOURAGING
CYCLOGENESIS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF
GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THEN SWING THROUGH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD GIVEN BROAD WAA
AND MAIN WESTERLIES/SHORTWAVE TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
JUST AFTER 06Z BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, SSW WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THAT FRONT WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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