297
FXUS63 KIWX 162019
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
319 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
- FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW ENDING FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
- SEASONABLY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO 45.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
RETURN FLOW NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP LOWS MUCH
MILDER TONIGHT THEN LAST NIGHT (FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES LAST
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 DEGREES TONIGHT). THE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THE SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
AS FOR CHANCES FOR FLOODING, ALL INDICATIONS ARE VERY LOW
FLOODING PROBABILITIES. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY
RISE INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY, RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
VERY LOW. HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THE FLOW ON NUMEROUS RIVERS WERE
100 CFS OR LESS. COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWE IN SNOWPACK
WAS 0.50" OR LESS. ADDITIONAL RAIN/QPF FROM PRECIPITATION PER
WPC IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.50".
OTHERWISE, A FLASH FREEZE TYPE OF SCENARIO IS SETTING UP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ICY
ROADS ARE LIKELY WHERE ROADS REMAIN WET THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FAST BUT WEAK SYSTEMS IN HIGH ZONAL FLOW
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEFLY
COLDER WEATHER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
NEAR 25 WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY, THEN TURN COLDER
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN, PLENTY OF DRY WEATHER KEEPS US IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE TRANSITION
HAPPENS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN CAA ALLOWING FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO
THE 30S ALLOWING FOR MELTING OF SNOW, WHICH IS TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS FOG DOES COME WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS WINDS
MAY STAY EXCITED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING FOG AT BAY OR AT
LEAST AT A LITTLE BIT HIGHER VIS. HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP AT
SBN, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF FWA AT THIS TIME GIVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY THERE.
WINDS START OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KTS BECOMES MORE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO TAIL OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP AND HAVE IT IN THERE, BUT THE SETUP
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS AN UNUSUAL
SPOT FOR IT. HAVE OPTED TO PUT IT IN THERE, BUT IT'S VERY MARGINAL
AND COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE IT REMOVED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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