418
FXUS63 KIWX 162357
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
- FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW ENDING FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
- SEASONABLY MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO 45.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
RETURN FLOW NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP LOWS MUCH
MILDER TONIGHT THEN LAST NIGHT (FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES LAST
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 DEGREES TONIGHT). THE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THE SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
AS FOR CHANCES FOR FLOODING, ALL INDICATIONS ARE VERY LOW
FLOODING PROBABILITIES. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY
RISE INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY, RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
VERY LOW. HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THE FLOW ON NUMEROUS RIVERS WERE
100 CFS OR LESS. COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWE IN SNOWPACK
WAS 0.50" OR LESS. ADDITIONAL RAIN/QPF FROM PRECIPITATION PER
WPC IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.50".
OTHERWISE, A FLASH FREEZE TYPE OF SCENARIO IS SETTING UP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ICY
ROADS ARE LIKELY WHERE ROADS REMAIN WET THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FAST BUT WEAK SYSTEMS IN HIGH ZONAL FLOW
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEFLY
COLDER WEATHER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
NEAR 25 WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY, THEN TURN COLDER
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY ON THIS TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. HOWEVER, FOR KSBN AFTER 07Z WED MAY SEE SOME MISTY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LOWER THE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR CATS WITH
THE WAA PUSHING NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
RECENT SNOWFALL. AFTER 15Z WED SOME MIST AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FOR KFWA EXPECTED. WINDS HOWEVER COULD
KEEP ANY MIST (POSSIBLY PATCHES OF FOG, LESS LIKELY) AT BAY SO
CERTAINTY IS A BIT LOW AS THIS MAY BECOME MORE OF JUST A LOW CIG
SITUATION FOR BOTH SITES. THIS SAME ISENTROPIC FLOW AND WINDS
WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 07-10Z WED FOR BOTH
TAF SITES. WINDS SLACKEN OFF AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD AND VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER 18-19Z WED FOR BOTH SITES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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