003
FXUS63 KIWX 171916
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
216 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50. TURNING SHARPLY COLDER
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 25.
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- COLD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 25. SEASONABLY MILD SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40 TO 45.
- DRY AND COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS "...A WILD ROLLER
COASTER RIDE...". HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE
20S TO THE 50S. AT THE ONSET, MILD AIR WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER
SNOW COVERED GROUND. SNOW DEPTHS THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 3" OR
LESS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH. GIVEN THE VERY LOW RIVER STAGES AND
LIMITED WATER FROM SNOW MELTING AND RAIN FALLING, HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
AREA NOT EXPECTED.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FLASH FREEZE
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP
EVAPORATE OR SUBLIMATE WATER AND ICE, AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT TRAFFIC
ISSUES. SOME CONCERN WITH VERY STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BUFKIT GFS INDICATED WINDS AT SBN (SOUTH "
BEND) UP TO 80 MPH AT ONLY 2000 FEET. THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS
STRONG AND WILL HELP LIMIT MIXING DOWN OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM. RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF LESS (AROUND HALF AN INCH
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN LINE TO LESS THAN 1/2" OVER INDIANA
AND OHIO. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AT KSBN SHOULD ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY SETTLING IN FOR A BRIEF TIME AT KFWA AS WELL. VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS OTHERWISE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO STREAM NORTHWARD WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THIS
TIME. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO LOWER MVFR OR IFR
AT KSBN BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, AND MID-LATE MORNING AT KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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