813
FXUS63 KIWX 172351
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50. TURNING SHARPLY COLDER
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 25.
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- COLD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 25. SEASONABLY MILD SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40 TO 45.
- DRY AND COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS "...A WILD ROLLER
COASTER RIDE...". HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE
20S TO THE 50S. AT THE ONSET, MILD AIR WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER
SNOW COVERED GROUND. SNOW DEPTHS THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 3" OR
LESS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH. GIVEN THE VERY LOW RIVER STAGES AND
LIMITED WATER FROM SNOW MELTING AND RAIN FALLING, HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
AREA NOT EXPECTED.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FLASH FREEZE
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP
EVAPORATE OR SUBLIMATE WATER AND ICE, AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT TRAFFIC
ISSUES. SOME CONCERN WITH VERY STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BUFKIT GFS INDICATED WINDS AT SBN (SOUTH "
BEND) UP TO 80 MPH AT ONLY 2000 FEET. THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS
STRONG AND WILL HELP LIMIT MIXING DOWN OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM. RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF LESS (AROUND HALF AN INCH
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN LINE TO LESS THAN 1/2" OVER INDIANA
AND OHIO. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER WINDS AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE UPTICK AFTER 08Z THU FOR KSBN AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH INCREASE IN CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION, LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR, SLIGHT VSBY DROPS IN
PRECIPITATION, AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
KFWA WILL ALSO SEE THESE IMPACTS AFTER 10Z THU WITH LOWERING
CIGS TO MVFR AFTER 13Z THU WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE NEAR
SURFACE LEVELS AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSITS EASTWARD. FURTHER
LOWERING OF CIGS TO IFR CATS AND PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN MIST
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER 13Z FOR KSBN AND AFTER 21Z THU FOR
KFWA. PEAK SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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