882
FXUS63 KIWX 211725
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY TODAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW TO MID 30S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AROUND CHRISTMAS.
- BRIEFLY COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
BEFORE A WARMING TREND ENSUES LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ON OUR DOORSTEP EARLY THIS MORNING,
BRINGING PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A BRIEF, REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US 6). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TODAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS, DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE ALL DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS WAA DOMINATES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVES
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM.
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHEN THIS SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, I AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS
EVENT BEING A COLD LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SETUP. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS HIGHLIGHT A DRIZZLE SETUP AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 30S AND RISING) WHEN THE AIR IS SATURATED.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WARMING TREND IS AHEAD TO FINISH OUT
THE LAST FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRINGS ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FOR CHRISTMAS. FOR OUR AREA, NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S APPEAR LIKELY (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
US 30) FOR CHRISTMAS. A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS OUT OF THE QUESTION AT
THIS POINT AS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, WITH ALL OF THIS WARMTH COMES THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AROUND CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN AS OF NOW APPEAR HIGHEST
OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE HEADING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE
DAYBREAK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING ACROSS THE AREA KEEPS VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT, MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS COME IN AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND EVAPORATION LIMITS RAINFALL ATTEMPTS TO
REACH THE GROUND DURING MUCH OF MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS BACK
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING WHILE STAYING BELOW 10 KTS SUSTAINED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page