396
FXUS63 KIWX 011900
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
200 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF US
30 WITH ACCUMULATIONS A HALF INCH OR LESS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MAY GRAZE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
COMPARED TO THE THE END OF 2025, 2026 WILL START OUT ON A MUCH MORE
PEACEFUL NOTE, WITH TRENDS STILL SUGGESTING A RETURN TO NEAR OR MORE
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OR 2 OF
JANUARY. A FEW HICCUPS DO EXIST PRIOR TO THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, SO LETS DO A QUICK BREAKDOWN ON THEM.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS MN AND WI THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY APPEARING IN NW AREAS, A
BRIEF STRUGGLE IN DRY LOW LEVELS NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. KSBN HAS BEEN
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SINCE THE 1 PM OB, WITH SFC DEWPOINT SPREADS
NOT AS HIGH AS UPSTREAM (LAKE CONTRIBUTION?). CAMS IN THE AREA
SUGGEST FLAKE SIZE LIKELY RATHER SMALL, BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE UNDERWAY. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DO SHOW GREATER
VSBY IMPACTS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL TREND THIS
WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS NORTH OF US-30 WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A QUICK DUSTING TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW
BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING NEAR 00Z FRI.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL, ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED, BUT COULD SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES TO HELP IT
FEEL A BIT BETTER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY N OF US-6, GREATER CHANCES WILL
RESIDE INTO MI WITH NO TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY COMMENCE IN GREATER FASHION
STARTING MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP ABOVE NORMAL (40S TO EVEN SOME 50S), SOME
DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS MAY OCCUR AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH
THE FLOW. SOME SLGT CHC POPS EXIST TUESDAY EVENING, BUT ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW
END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR; HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH
KSBN AND KFWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SNOW DIMINISHES THIS EVENING
AND WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS
RETURN AS SKIES GRADUALLY START TO CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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