340
FXUS63 KIWX 012353
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF US
30 WITH ACCUMULATIONS A HALF INCH OR LESS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MAY GRAZE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
COMPARED TO THE THE END OF 2025, 2026 WILL START OUT ON A MUCH MORE
PEACEFUL NOTE, WITH TRENDS STILL SUGGESTING A RETURN TO NEAR OR MORE
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OR 2 OF
JANUARY. A FEW HICCUPS DO EXIST PRIOR TO THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, SO LETS DO A QUICK BREAKDOWN ON THEM.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS MN AND WI THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE RADAR RETURNS ARE ALREADY APPEARING IN NW AREAS, A
BRIEF STRUGGLE IN DRY LOW LEVELS NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. KSBN HAS BEEN
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SINCE THE 1 PM OB, WITH SFC DEWPOINT SPREADS
NOT AS HIGH AS UPSTREAM (LAKE CONTRIBUTION?). CAMS IN THE AREA
SUGGEST FLAKE SIZE LIKELY RATHER SMALL, BUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE UNDERWAY. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DO SHOW GREATER
VSBY IMPACTS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL TREND THIS
WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS NORTH OF US-30 WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A QUICK DUSTING TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW
BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING NEAR 00Z FRI.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL, ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED, BUT COULD SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES TO HELP IT
FEEL A BIT BETTER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY N OF US-6, GREATER CHANCES WILL
RESIDE INTO MI WITH NO TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY COMMENCE IN GREATER FASHION
STARTING MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP ABOVE NORMAL (40S TO EVEN SOME 50S), SOME
DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS MAY OCCUR AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH
THE FLOW. SOME SLGT CHC POPS EXIST TUESDAY EVENING, BUT ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR AT KSBN THANKS TO LAKE
INFLUENCE (LIGHT W-WNW WINDS) AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS, BUT
ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER (ESP AT KSBN) AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MODELS APPEAR CONFLICTED AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL GET-WITH KFWA ON THE BORDER
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR PER MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. HAVE KSBN DROPPING
TO AROUND 1500FT CEILINGS, AND KFWA LINGERING AT 2500FT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER THAT MVFR CEILINGS LINGER JUST NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING KFWA. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT DID NOT BRING
LOWER CEILINGS IN AT ALL AT EITHER SITE-BUT THINK IT'S
REASONABLE-ESPECIALLY AT KSBN-WITH WNW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WE SEE
THE CEILINGS DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST COULD LIFT
FURTHER NORTHWARD-WHICH WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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