926
FXUS63 KIWX 020801
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
301 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MAY GRAZE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
- CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE. OTHERWISE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, BUT ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
MAIN SHORT WAVE TRACK THIS MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD SHEARED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR JET. WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND PASSAGE OF WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS
SUSTAINED SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES A BIT MORE NORTHWEST IN
NATURE THIS MORNING, A FEW OF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE
TRIED TO APPROACH SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
AND NEAR TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CONTINUED DRYING
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OF FAVORED LOW-BASED SNOW GROWTH REGION.
THUS, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED A BIT WITH HANDLING OF LOW CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE IN THE 900-800 LAYER SHOULD LOWER
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR, TRYING TO RESOLVE THIN LAYERS OF LOW CLOUD IN THESE
WEAKLY SUBSIDENT PATTERNS IS A CHALLENGE. LOW NATURE OF THIS
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO POOR MIXING TODAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN
THIS POOR MIXING, POTENTIAL OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING, AND WEAK
THERMAL ADVECTION, TEMP RESPONSE TODAY SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID TO UPPER 20S.
FOR TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
AS SOME RETURN MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES BACK ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. PRESENCE OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH (GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20)
DESPITE PRESENCE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY WITH THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO JUST SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AND POSSIBLY
INTO NW OHIO FOR A TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH UPSTREAM
RIDGE SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN ON SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF MORE FOCUSED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSES FROM NAM/GFS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED
SHOT OF FORCING WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS
IN 280-290K LAYER LIKELY ONLY RESIDING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR ABOUT
A 3-HOUR WINDOW. BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN JUST MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS
IN THIS BRIEF TEMPORAL WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN ENSUING PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFICATION AS IT
SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. DID
MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBILITY
OF ENOUGH SHALLOW BASED MOISTURE BY THAT TIME FOR SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN STILL LOOK TO BE TOWARD END OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE WHEN BULK OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME
TYPE OF LARGER SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. POTENTIAL PHASING WITH
A PERTURBED NORTHERN STREAM STILL LENDS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY TO EVENTUAL TROUGH AMPLITUDE/TIMING, SO MID RANGE
CHANCE RAIN POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STILL REMAINS IN ITEM OF
HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SEEPING SOUTH ACROSS WI AND MI EARLY THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN ON PACE TO ARRIVE TO KSBN AND KFWA +/-12Z.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING LATE. DURATION OF MVFR
(IFR AT KSBN) MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT. WIND AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE MIDWEST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...BROWN
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