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FXUS63 KIWX 030519
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1219 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS MAY GRAZE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE, WARMING 850 MB TEMPS AND A WEAKENING FLOW
IS FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS. ALTHOUGH WE GET RID OF THE PRECIP,
CONTINUED NW FLOW AND SLOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL INVERSION
FROM MODEST START OF WAA AS WELL AS THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE
(SET TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA) WILL KEEP SOME SORT OF
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE
CLOUDS, LITTLE OVERALL IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE DROPS QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, AND AREA OF WEAK AND
QUITE NARROW ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED. OVERALL SETUP NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY DOESN'T WARRANT ANYMORE THAN THE SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS THAT REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT AS UPPER RIDGING INCREASING AND
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING A WARM UP REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL 40S
SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON WITH 50S APPEARING FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
IN THE US-24 CORRIDOR.
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA MID WEEK, TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS (MAYBE STORMS), WITH TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES STILL
EXISTING (AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN PERMITS WIND NEAR 5KTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LAKE-ENDUCED MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AT KSBN. THE OVERALL SIGNAL IS MURKY PAIRED
WITH INCONGRUENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS, OFFERED A SLIGHT
DOWNGRADE OF BKN040 AT KSBN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...BROWN
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