900
FXUS63 KIWX 031907
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
207 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF CLOUDS TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND BEINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE
WORK WEEK.
- LOW CONFIDENCE (20-30%) EXISTS IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY EVENING NORTH OF US 6. CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE THE WORKWEEK FOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCE CONTINUE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH YET
ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY, LEAVING
THE AREA HIGH AND DRY IN TERMS OF ANY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. A
BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING, BUT THE
SAME DRY AIR CONCERNS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT SNOW
PRODUCTION. CONTEMPLATED REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY, BUT WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO FLURRIES.
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
THIS FEATURE DOES HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT THE WINDOW OF BETTER MOISTURE IS ONLY A
FEW HOURS AND STILL STRUGGLES TO FULLY SATURATE BELOW THE BEST
LIFT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN PLACE, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN LOWER MI.
THE AFORMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTH INTO THE
AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SEMI ZONAL. EVEN
THOUGH HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS 2 FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP STILL EXISTS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FIRST WAVE. A MOIST AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE OF A FOG/DRIZZLE SITUATION TUESDAY, BUT FOR THE TIME
BEING WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
MED RANGE MODELS AGREE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 00Z THU, BEFORE FILLING AND EJECTING NE TO BE
ABSORBED BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. LIKELY TO BE SOME SORT OF
PHASING OF THE ENERGY, BUT MODELS VARY GREATLY ON OVERALL TIMING
AND TRACK OF FEATURES. WHILE A WET AND WARM PERIOD DOES APPEAR
TO BE IN STORE LATE NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT IMPACTS IS
STILL ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AT KSBN AS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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