886
FXUS63 KIWX 041751
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TODAY.
- LOW CONFIDENCE (20-30%) EXISTS IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF US ROUTE 6.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS,
BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS BETTER CHANCES OF
WINTRY PRECIP REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
- CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE THE WORKWEEK FOR
RAIN CHANCES, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCE CONTINUE.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPING
BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MIXING POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
LIMITED TODAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ONLY HELPING TO HOLD ONTO THE
PESKY LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER TODAY, BUT AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, EXPECTING TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN SPOTS.
A PROGRESSIVE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY EMERGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW THE LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT IN DURATION TONIGHT, WITH BEST LIFT
EXPECTED IN THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD. WITH BEST FORCING FROM THIS MID
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF LESS THAN 50 MB
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, PROSPECTS OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO LOOK MEAGER AT THIS POINT. IF
PRECIP DOES OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF US ROUTE 6 TONIGHT, PRECIP
TYPES COULD BE A BIT MUDDLED AS DGZ AND ICE NUCLEI PRODUCTION
LAYER WOULD BE HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WOULD HAVE TO SURVIVE SOME
LARGER LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. COULD SEE A SCENARIO
WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
TEMPORAL WINDOW THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF DRY/WEAK WARM LAYER OCCURS. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT, BUT
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PASSAGE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR THE ONSET OF A SHARPER MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND TO
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. UPSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT
AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL EASTERN PACIFIC PROGRESSIVE
WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WARM, MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD PRECEDE THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES AND BROAD
WARM/MOIST ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. DID
CONSIDER ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG WITH AN ADVECTION FOG SCENARIO
POSSIBLY UNFOLDING IN THIS SETUP, BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT FEW FORECAST
SHIFTS TO REFINE THIS WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG
POTENTIAL. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE RAIN POPS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN AN INCREASE IN THIS ADVECTIVE
COMPONENT WITH WARM FRONTAL FORCING.
A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUATION IN THE TREND FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN LATE WORK
WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS MEAN AMPLIFICATION OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE FLOW EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN
CONUS IS QUITE COMPLICATED HEADING LATE WORK WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE REGARDING SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM
PHASING. A CUT OFF PV ANOMALY WEST OF BAJA OF CA ALSO APPEARS TO BE
COMPLICATING ANY TYPE OF SOLID CONSENSUS AMONG INDIVIDUAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS. EC DETERMINISTIC REMAINS THE SHARPEST WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE WARMEST SOLUTION AND
EVEN POTENTIAL OF SOME ISO THUNDER LATE WORK WEEK, BUT GIVEN
LARGE ENSEMBLE MEAN SPREADS AMONG VARIOUS INDIVIDUAL GUIDANCE,
FEEL A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND MORE SUPPRESSED GEFS MEAN
SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD STILL
PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SOME POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW FOR LATE
WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER AT KFWA AND KSBN
THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 4K TO 6K
FEET AGL TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS W/ SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...HAMMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page