041
FXUS63 KIWX 042338
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VARIABLE CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE (<20%)
OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR EVEN A BIT OF SLEET THIS EVENING IN
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI.
- CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE THE WORKWEEK
FOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCE CONTINUE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS APPEARED IN SW/W AREAS, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER 20S
IN NE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN BY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH, IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING WAVE. FORECASTED
SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED, IF ANY
HOPE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS WITH
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDING NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE TRIMMED
THE POPS FURTHER AND LIMITED TO SLGT CHC IN THE FAR NORTH TO
BLEND.
WAA WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SFC
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOWPACK ALONG/NORTH OF US 6 ON THE ORDER
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL TEMPER THE WARMING (MID 30S) VS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH 40 TO THE LOWER 40S. ANOTHER, SOMEWHAT STRONGER, WAVE
WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRONOUNCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT CHC TO LOW
END LIKELY POPS IN N AREAS TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOWPACK RELEASE
AND INITIAL INVERSION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
COULD YIELD EITHER EXTENSIVE STRATUS OR FOG/DRIZZLE (FREEZING?).
HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
STRONGER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN SOME 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE SW ENERGY STILL EJECTS
NORTH IN THE INCREASING FLOW, MODELS SEEM TO BE DAMPENING THIS
OUT A FAIR AMOUNT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL LINGERING BACK
AS OF 6Z FRI BEFORE EJECTING NE AND PHASING WITH A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. AS A RESULT, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE THU TO SAT TIME
FRAME, SPECIFICS ON TIMING, AMOUNTS AND PTYPE REMAIN A BIG
CHALLENGE. CHC TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN PLACE THU THROUGH EARLY
SAT AND WILL CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT PRECIP OR EVEN CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KSBN. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KFWA BUT SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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