875
FXUS63 KIWX 062316
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
616 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER THIS
WEEKEND.
- AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF US 30 IN NE IN, NW OH, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MI.
- PERIODS OF RAIN (80-90%) LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DECENT RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF US 30 IN NORTHEAST IN, NORTHWEST OH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MI THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVELS NEAR A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. THE RESPONSIBLE WEAK SFC WAVE WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD LAKE
ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL ASCENT WANING
FOR A TIME LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A TRAILING, LOW
AMPLITUDE, MID LEVEL WAVE THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF INCREASE TO
DRIZZLE/FOG COVERAGE. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED WITHIN A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SOME THINNING AND SCATTERING IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH) COMES
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MOISTURE-LADEN LEAD
SHORTWAVE SHEARS QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850-700 MB LAYER MIXING RATIOS OF 7-8 G/KG WILL
ADVECT IN WITHIN A ~60 KT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
SFC REFLECTION TRACK. THUS, HELD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND DECENT
WPC QPF (HIGHEST NORTHWEST).
LOWER CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND MUCH OF
FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR A LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE THEN
ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK/INTENSITY GIVEN ALL IMPORTANT DETAILS ON WHEN/IF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITHIN THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS PHASES. AN OVERALL
CONSENSUS FAVORS A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND TOWARD
LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME. THE RESULT WOULD BE CHANCES FOR RAIN,
POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY WRAPS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN/EXPAND THE LOW STRATUS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING KSBN. SOME MINOR VARIATIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES BUT OVERALL EXPECT CEILINGS AT KSBN TO REMAIN AROUND
400FT UNTIL LATE WED MORNING. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS MUCH LOWER GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL IN LATEST
GUIDANCE. FOR KFWA, EXPECT A TRANSITION TO IFR CEILINGS AROUND
02-03Z THAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE WED MORNING. SOME LIFR
CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION
REMAINS LOW. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES AND FLOW STEADILY
BACKS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page