132
FXUS63 KIWX 071814
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES REACH
WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
- SHOWERS POTENTIALLY CLIP MAINLY NW IN AND SW MI THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN (80-100%) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- COLDER AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR LAKE MI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LOW STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN UNDER RETURN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MILD/DRY OTHERWISE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND DEVELOPING SFC REFLECTIONS LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
GET BOOTED QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. TRACK OF THE SFC
REFLECTION HAS TRENDED A BIT WEST IN THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES SUGGESTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIER/STEADIER RAINFALL WILL
PASS WEST OF THE AREA, AND FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS, DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT A MOISTURE-LADEN 1" PLUS PWAT AIR MASS INTO THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER (HEAVIER GUSTY SHOWERS) TRACKING THROUGH (QPF
GENERALLY 0.25-0.50", LOCALLY HEAVIER WITH ANY LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS). SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO SURGE INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE.
SYSTEM COOL FRONT DOES SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THEN REENTERS THE PICTURE LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
BRANCH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOW IN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMS/IMPACTS
MAINLY FOCUSED IN OUR WNW FLOW LES BELTS THANKS TO SOME ENHANCEMENT.
TRANQUIL WX THEN TO FOLLOW INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
STRATUS WAS CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HAD MADE IT NORTHEAST
OF LAF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
WERE STILL KEEPING PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE ABOVE 3SM. THE WARM
FRONT WAS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM ABOUT SLO TO EVV. ALTHOUGH
IFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL PLAGUING NORTHERN INDIANA INCLUDING
THE TAF SITES, CLEARING IS LIKELY TO REACH BOTH SITE BEFORE 00Z
PER HRRR, OBS, AND TRENDS. SOME CONCERN FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE FRONT. MAY BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR PREVAILING IN TAFS OVERNIGHT - TAFS MAY
NEED TO BE UPDATED IN THIS REGARD. OTHERWISE, WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED LATE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR UNDER 030.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page