184
FXUS63 KIWX 081814
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES
REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN (80-100%) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH TIMES. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER GUSTS IS LOW.
- RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
- COLDER AND BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR LAKE MI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. A LULL IN THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS BECOME
LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY. A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
IN THE NEAR TERM, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. LOWEST SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN NOTED IN REGIONAL OBS OVERNIGHT
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD BE ISOLATED EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, A STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT POSITIONED FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IN/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
QUITE ELEVATED INCREASES IN RH, BUT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL DRY
LAYER TAKING SOME TIME TO ERODE IN THE 900-800 LAYER. THIS
INITIAL ADVECTIVE FORCING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SHOULD BE TRANSITORY SETTING UP A POTENTIAL
LULL IN RAIN CHANCES FOR A TIME EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. STILL FEEL AN
APPROACH OF THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IS IN ORDER GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES MUCH INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS
FROM UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, TO AROUND 50
FAR NORTHEAST.
FOR TONIGHT, THE POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE A 50-65 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL TRANSPORT A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE
NOSE OF A STRONGER UPPER STREAK CUTTING THROUGH DOWNSTREAM
PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY EVENING WITH SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO ADVECTIVE
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING MORE
DIVORCED FROM THIS FORCING. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 04Z-08Z WINDOW AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET MAXIMIZES IN PRE-FRONTAL FORCING REGION. A NARROW
JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AXIS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS BUILDING IN FROM MS VALLEY COULD
YIELD A NARROW 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS REACHING WESTERN IN
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD WANE
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
SOME WEAK SHALLOW BASED CAPE, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY STRONGER 50+ MPH GUST BEING MIXED DOWN, BUT OVERALL WEAK
NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY AND POSITIVELY TILED SHEARED WAVE WITH
SHEAR VECTORS LIKELY LARGELY LINE-PARALLEL SUGGEST LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER END GUSTS.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER POTENTIAL COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75" RANGE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER TOTALS WANES IN EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE
MORE SEPARATED FROM THE HIGHLY SHEARED WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHORT
WAVE AND BETTER JET DYNAMICS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS,
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SOME 25 TO
35 MPH GUSTS TONIGHT, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL OF REACHING SOME
40 MPH SYNOPTIC GUSTS SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 ACROSS NE IN/NW OHIO
WHERE WARMEST SFC TEMPS ARE MAINTAINED AND A BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE/THERMAL RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, PREFRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ACTUAL
COLD FRONT, OR POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS IN COLD ADVECTION, BUT DEPTH OF COLD
AIR AND MIXED LAYER DEPTHS COULD BE LIMITED. A LULL IN RAIN
CHANCES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
NEXT DIGGING EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS AGAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP OF
POTENTIAL PHASING OF THIS SHORT WAVE WITH A LARGER NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXTENT OF
DEPTH OF THIS PHASED SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AMPLITUDE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL PHASING COULD OCCUR IN VICINITY OF LOCAL AREA, THE
DURATION OF RETURN MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE LIMITED. HOWEVER,
GIVEN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY. ALL TRENDS STILL POINT TOWARD CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND A TREND BACK TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. OTHERWISE, MON-WED LOOKS TO
FEATURE A POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL WEAKER EMBEDDED NW FLOW WAVES
THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN KS AND WAS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST. TO THE EAST OF THE LOW, AREAS OF SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MO AND IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH
NORTHERN INDIANA AND BRING RAIN TO BOTH TERMINALS. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE ONGOING TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE, MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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