641
FXUS63 KIWX 090521
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1221 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY 0.25-0.75".
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE 10 PM TO 4 AM EST TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST
OF I-60. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
- CHANCES (50-70%) FOR LIGHT RAIN RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
- COLDER WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR LAKE MI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL STORM
SYSTEMS TAKE AIM ON THE MIDWEST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC REFLECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A RATHER
ANOMALOUS THETA-E RIDGE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BUILD IN TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES. AN IMPRESSIVE PRE-FRONTAL 60-75
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CORE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PEAK INTO THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES OVERNIGHT, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ALSO WELL INTO THE
50S. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 69
IN THE 03-09Z WINDOW TONIGHT. THAT'S NOT A WHOLE LOT TO WORK WITH,
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH) IN
ANY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STRONGLY
SHEARED/DYNAMIC COLD SEASON ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR TIMING OF HIGHER
POPS, AN INITIAL ARCING BAND OF LIGHTER RAIN WITHIN THE LEADING
ELEVATED THETA-E GRADIENT LIKELY CLIPS AT LEAST WESTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWS BEFORE LINES AND CLUSTERS OF MORE
ROBUST SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE AREA MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75",
HEAVIEST WEST OF INTERSTATE 69. WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE SYSTEM COOL
FRONT, WITH DRY/COOL ADVECTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN. RAINFALL LOCALLY
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE LOW ALSO DOESN'T REALLY DEEPEN AND PARTIALLY
PHASE WITH AN INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW UNTIL IT REACHES
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. STILL DO EXPECTED COLDER AIR AND SCATTERED
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES (HIGHEST NEAR LAKE MI) TO WRAP IN ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TRANQUIL WX THEN FOLLOWS INTO MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY
BEFORE AN LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
TWO MAIN ISSUES AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY. WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, IT IS THE
HEAVIER RAIN FROM A MOIST COLUMN THAT BRINGS IN THE ADVERSE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS AND VISBY ALONG WITH TIMES OF LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SURPASSED 30 TO 45 MPH AND THE THREAT FOR THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT FWA. THE NEXT CHANCE WILL BE AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN EARLY MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MORNING STRATUS AFFECTS
MIXING AND THESE WINDS END UP LOWER, MORE LIKE THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. WE'LL ALSO HAVE LLWS IN THE TAFS WITH THAT BEING A
POSSIBILITY FROM THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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