702
FXUS63 KIWX 091004
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
504 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THIS MORNING WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY, CHANGING
TO MOSTLY SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH,
EXCEPT IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WHERE TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS HAVE LARGELY DIED OFF OUTSIDE OF
NW OHIO (SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35-40 MPH AS OF THIS
WRITING). THIS RELATIVE LULL IN THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 6-7 AM ET (SLIGHTLY LATER FURTHER EAST), WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7-11 AM ET AS WE MIX OUT
THE LLJ (45-50 KNOTS AT 925MB), DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WAS ON THE FENCE BETWEEN AN
ADVISORY AND SPS FOR TODAYS WINDS GIVEN GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE, BUT WITH CAA ONGOING FIGURE GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY.
ADDITIONALLY, CURRENT UPSTREAM OBS ARE COMING IN ON THE HIGHER
SIDE AT 45-50 MPH NEAR THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING EXTENDS FROM 6
AM-4 PM ET TODAY FOR ALL AREAS, HOWEVER SUSPECT THAT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY IN THE WEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. LOWS TONIGHT WILL END UP IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW TO MID 30S
(WARMEST SOUTH OF US 30), WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING NORTH TO
EAST BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO
MN/WI, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN LAKE MI AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON BY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUN AM. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS JUST SOUTHEAST/EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OVER OUR CWA BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE LOWS WHILE THE
UPPER LOW SINKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. SUSPECT THE SYSTEM TO THE E-SE
WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT SOMEWHAT, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 30S, LOW TO MID 40S (WARMEST SOUTH OF US 24). TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT, SO ANY CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW. THERE MIGHT BE A LULL WITH WEST WINDS SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT A POTENT WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE IN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WHICH WILL
PROMPT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MAINLY THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES (W-WNW
WIND FAVORED AREAS). FOR NOW, HAVE AROUND 1-3" SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE FORECAST FOR SAT PM-SUN.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST BENEATH A RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM SUN PM INTO MON PM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S SUN AND THE UPPER
30S, LOW 40S MON. LOWS SUN PM/MON PM IN THE 20S, LOW 30S.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE PM INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S, SO WE'LL LIKELY SEE MORE RAIN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MIXES WITH SNOW TOWARDS WED AM. HIGHS
WED LOOK TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S-SO WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE RAIN
DURING THE DAY AGAIN-WITH SOME MIXING FURTHER NORTH OF US 24. WED PM
INTO THU-FRI TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
(OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEENS-20S), SO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE SNOW (MOST LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR LAKE MI).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
TWO MAIN ISSUES AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY. WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, IT IS THE
HEAVIER RAIN FROM A MOIST COLUMN THAT BRINGS IN THE ADVERSE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS AND VISBY ALONG WITH TIMES OF LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SURPASSED 30 TO 45 MPH AND THE THREAT FOR THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT FWA. THE NEXT CHANCE WILL BE AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN EARLY MORNING AND MIDDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KT GUSTS AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MORNING STRATUS AFFECTS
MIXING AND THESE WINDS END UP LOWER, MORE LIKE THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. WE'LL ALSO HAVE LLWS IN THE TAFS WITH THAT BEING A
POSSIBILITY FROM THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...CR
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