089
FXUS63 KIWX 092356
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
656 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- COLDER AND BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION, EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN NORTHWEST IN AND SW MI WHERE
TOTALS OF 1-3" WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY MAKES AN APPEARANCE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FOR SATURDAY, ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN,
AND A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE GETTING ABSORBED
NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
UPWARD MOTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
ACCOMPANY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS IN A SPLIT OVERHEAD AS MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING BYPASSES WEST AND BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY
REMAINS LOCKED UP WELL TO THE EAST. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW NEAR/NORTH OF THE MI BORDER WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT
RAIN ELSEWHERE FOR A TIME ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 OTHERWISE ON
SATURDAY.
THE DEVELOPMENT AND DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A COLDER/BLUSTERY
AIR MASS TO WRAP IN. SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL ALSO PIVOT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, TRANSITIONING TO
PURE LES IN OUR NW FLOW SNOW BELTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING
THIS TIME WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS AS CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEMS TRACK NORTH WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
NORTH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS POST-
FRONTAL. THERE COULD BE A ROBUST, YET BRIEF, LAKE RESPONSE SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP/COLD NORTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWS
IN POST-FRONTAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
AREA OF CLEARING ATTEMPTED TO WORK INTO KSBN AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN. HOWEVER, SATELLITE AND OBS DATA SHOWS STRATUS QUICKLY
FILLING BACK IN WITH CIGS SOLID IN THE MVFR RANGE. SLOWED DOWN
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, WITH EVENTUAL TREND TOWARD VFR
STILL APPEARING ON TRACK, JUST DELAYED. KFWA MAY VERY WELL
REMAIN IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN PROXIMITY
TO DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SE OF THE SITE.
ANY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT WILL QUICKLY DISAPPEAR ON SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOLID MVFR AND AT TIMES
IFR CIGS (ALSO VSBY AT KSBN) EXPECTED NEAR/AFTER 15Z AT KSBN AND
A FEW HOURS LATER AT KFWA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW PRIOR TO FROPA, THEN MAYBE ENDING AS A BIT OF SNOW BEFORE
THE DEEPER MSTR AND LIFT DEPARTS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS, MAYBE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AS CAA COMMENCES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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