331
FXUS63 KIWX 100530
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1230 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, MIXING WITH SNOW NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- COLDER AND BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION, EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN NORTHWEST IN AND SW MI WHERE
TOTALS OF 1-3" WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY MAKES AN APPEARANCE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FOR SATURDAY, ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN,
AND A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE GETTING ABSORBED
NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
UPWARD MOTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
ACCOMPANY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS IN A SPLIT OVERHEAD AS MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING BYPASSES WEST AND BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY
REMAINS LOCKED UP WELL TO THE EAST. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW NEAR/NORTH OF THE MI BORDER WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT
RAIN ELSEWHERE FOR A TIME ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 OTHERWISE ON
SATURDAY.
THE DEVELOPMENT AND DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A COLDER/BLUSTERY
AIR MASS TO WRAP IN. SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL ALSO PIVOT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, TRANSITIONING TO
PURE LES IN OUR NW FLOW SNOW BELTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING
THIS TIME WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS AS CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEMS TRACK NORTH WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
NORTH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS POST-
FRONTAL. THERE COULD BE A ROBUST, YET BRIEF, LAKE RESPONSE SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP/COLD NORTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWS
IN POST-FRONTAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
CURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN
TO FUEL-ALTERNATE CEILINGS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND SOME BRIEF RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
SNOW AT KSBN. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1SM AT KSBN AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIQUID AT KFWA. RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY SAT EVENING BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TO KSBN AT THE
VERY END OF THIS FORECAST WINDOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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