832
FXUS63 KIWX 101110
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
610 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TODAY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S, WARMEST
SOUTH OF US 24. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (40 TO 80
PERCENT), ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL
ROAD, WEST OF INTERSTATE 69.
- IT WILL BE WINDY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S TONIGHT, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT TIMES. LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AT 500MB, A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER MN
AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW OH TO THE
EAST COAST, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES INTO
OUR AREA, WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED THE THE TROUGH, THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OUR
CWA (AND BEGINS PHASING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH),
DRIFTING E-NE WITH TIME.
AS OF THIS WRITING, LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S (WARMEST ALONG/SOUTH OF US 24). THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS WEST
(NEAR MICHIGAN CITY/KNOX/LAPORTE, IN UP TO BENTON HARBOR, MI) THAT
ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. RAIN AND A FEW
MIXED PRECIPITATION REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM IL (JUST WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO, IL) ALONG THE TROUGH, AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY, PASSING FROM WSW TO ENE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN IT'S
WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY OR REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND REMAIN IN THE LOW (POSSIBLY MID) 40S
ALONG/SOUTH OF US 24 UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
EXPECT THERE TO BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEFORE THE
MAIN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT-WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY
WINDS AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS A BUMP IN MOISTURE
AS THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
STARTING AROUND 3-6Z, WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT CROSSES THROUGH INTO SUNDAY. A STINT OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE WAVE, PROBABLY LINGERING UNTIL ABOUT 15-18Z DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST TAKES
TO BUILD IN. SUSPECT TOWARDS 18Z SUN WE'LL HAVE MORE FLURRIES
THAN ANYTHING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEYOND 21Z. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN AN INCH WOULD BE UP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD WEST OF INTERSTATE 69 WHERE
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. RIGHT NOW HAVE AROUND 1-3" IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT LOCATION, AND LESS THAN 1" ELSEWHERE. WITH
BLUSTERY WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND COLD AIR FILTERING IN, EXPECT WIND
CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AT TIMES.
ACTUAL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW-MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DESCENDS UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LINGERING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MILD BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S-SO WE'LL SEE MAINLY RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
DAY. A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE 30S (MID-UPPER 30S
WED AFTERNOON).
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL EXISTS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS WE SEE YET ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY (ECMWF) OR LATER
INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW IS MORE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AND MAY
BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW AT KSBN, THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION OR
SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTION IS EXPECTED. RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL, LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...AGD
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