231
FXUS63 KIWX 110009
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
709 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. GENERALLY 0.5" TO 1" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-3" CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
- TURNING COLDER AND WINDY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MILD EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 709 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST TROUGH, WITH 2 MORE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. THE FIRST,
EXTENDING FROM THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TO SPRINGFIELD WAS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW, MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
VSBYS ARE DROPPING TO A MILE OR SO WITH THIS AREA. ACROSS
CHICAGO, MORE OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK WITH SPORADIC VSBY DROPS IN
LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL POPS LOOK IN DECENT SHAPE, BUT MAY NUDGE UP
FAR S/SW AREAS SOME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AFTER THIS PASSES,
ANOTHER BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
WIND WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE, GUSTING TO 30
MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. ANY SNOW IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LIMITED
MAINLY N OF US-30 AND WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES SOME SLICK SPOTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE SNOWFALL DOES OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TODAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND AN AREA OF RAIN CAN BE SEEN
ON RADAR IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHWEST. RAIN WAS SLOW TO FILL IN THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOW BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT WET SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US 30. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON), LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
(UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA) AND AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WINDS BACK WEST/NORTHWEST AND CAA
INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO DROPS THROUGH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A STRONG PUSH OF 500MB VORTICITY. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT, SNOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING (3-6 HRS) BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND UNFROZEN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WATER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY). OVERALL,
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1-3" ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE LAKE, 0.5-1" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE BLUSTERY, COLD DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
DRY MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S THANKS TO PERIODS OF WAA BOTH DAYS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN
RESUMES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM BY
MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IT MAY BE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY IN THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OFF AS RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY. AS THE
SYSTEM LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN COLDER
AIR THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S) WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON.
BETTER SNOW CHANCES HERE WITH THE COLDER AIR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM TRACKS.
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VARIED, WITH SOME RUNS
BRINGING THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA AND OTHERS KEEPING IN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS NOW WELL EAST WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM KORD TO KSPI. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING KORD/KMDW AND SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KSBN NEAR/AFTER 1Z FOR A SHORT PERIOD. SLIGHTLY LARGER
AREA OF IFR VSBYS AND LIGHT SNOW NOTED FROM KPNT TO KSPI. THIS
SHOULD BYPASS KSBN WITH IMPACTS TO KFWA QUESTIONABLE AS IT
TRENDS ESE. FOR NOW LEFT ANY IMPACTS OUT OF KFWA. WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME WHICH COULD LEAD TO FURTHER REDUCED VSBY IN ANY
SNOWSHOWERS.
MAIN UPPER LOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES IN AFTER 6Z WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FURTHER AND MAYBE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWSHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT KFWA WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED.
DIVIDED OUT THE 2 PERIODS SINCE IMPACTS WILL VARY WITH EACH ONE.
THEREAFTER, MVFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING
LATE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FISHER
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