236
FXUS63 KIWX 110549
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1249 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY DOWNWIND OF SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN.
- TURNING COLDER AND WINDY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MILD EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW
CHANCES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TODAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND AN AREA OF RAIN CAN BE SEEN
ON RADAR IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHWEST. RAIN WAS SLOW TO FILL IN THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOW BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT WET SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US 30. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON), LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
(UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA) AND AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WINDS BACK WEST/NORTHWEST AND CAA
INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO DROPS THROUGH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A STRONG PUSH OF 500MB VORTICITY. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT, SNOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING (3-6 HRS) BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND UNFROZEN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WATER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY). OVERALL,
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1-3" ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE LAKE, 0.5-1" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE BLUSTERY, COLD DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
DRY MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S THANKS TO PERIODS OF WAA BOTH DAYS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN
RESUMES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM BY
MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IT MAY BE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY IN THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START OFF AS RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY. AS THE
SYSTEM LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN COLDER
AIR THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S) WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON.
BETTER SNOW CHANCES HERE WITH THE COLDER AIR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM TRACKS.
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VARIED, WITH SOME RUNS
BRINGING THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA AND OTHERS KEEPING IN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IS ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF FWA'S
AIRSPACE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT HOUR THERE.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN REDEVELOP AND IMPACT TERMINALS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A MORE PREDOMINATE LAKE BAND
SETS UP BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...NORMAN
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