778
FXUS63 KIWX 111734
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1234 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES THROUGH LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD. THERE MAY BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WITHIN SNOW BANDS OR SHOWERS. ROADS MAY BE SLICK
AND SNOW COVERED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, LOW 30S THIS MORNING WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING, AND
THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MONDAY, THEN RISE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY, WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD, BREEZY, AND SNOW SHOWERY DAY IS AHEAD. RADAR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS LIGHT RADAR RETURNS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN,
INDICATIVE OF THE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THAT ARE ONGOING. VISIBILITIES DON'T APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED MUCH
AS MANY SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES STILL
UP AROUND 10 MILES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A CAA REGIME,
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THIS MORNING, SO HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS MAY STILL SPORADICALLY GUST AS HIGH AS
25 TO 30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON
N-S ORIENTED ROADS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND ANY REMAINING SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THIS
MORNING, WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA
INTO SOUTHERN IN/OH/IL. THIS TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MI/UPPER MI/NORTHERN WI)
WILL THEN DROP THROUGH AROUND 15-18Z, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SNOW (ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI WITH A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT)
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, EVENTUALLY CRASHING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/LIFT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON (STARTING IN THE W-NW). THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THIS
MORNING IN NE IN AND NW OH WILL SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST AND GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY-WITH STRONGEST GUSTS BEHIND THE
PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH AS WE COLD ADVECT. TEMPS DROP INTO
THE LOW-MID 20S (UPPER 20S NW OH) THIS MORNING BEFORE RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE WE ARE
STARTING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING-AND THE LOW
20S THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS WISE, EXPECT A TOTAL OF 1-2 INCHES (MAX ALONG TOLL
ROAD AND NORTH INTO MI), WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ROADS MAY BE
SLICK AND SNOW COVERED THIS MORNING DUE TO LAST NIGHTS
SNOWFALL/ONGOING SNOWFALL TODAY-SO BE CAUTIOUS. REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES IF DRIVING THROUGH SNOW BANDS
OR SHOWERS-ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTY WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A PASSING
WAVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.
ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND-WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW/SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN/KY/TN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S,
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH COULD
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE). EXPECT A MIX WEDNESDAY THAT CHANGES TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS TEMPS FALL FROM THE MID-UPPER
30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY (MID-UPPER 20S BY AFTERNOON).
WHILE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE MOVES THROUGH (POPS FOCUSED
NEAR LAKE MI), WE HAVE YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW (OR SHARP TROUGH) THAT
DROPS INTO GENERALLY THE SAME AREA AS THE MID WEEK LOW, LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-30S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS FOR BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH 08Z SUN OR SO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 21Z SAT BUT BEFORE
SO THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS FOR BOTH TAF SITES IN
LIGHT SNOW. AFTER 08Z SUN, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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