669
FXUS63 KIWX 140546
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
REPLACED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH. HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8" ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
BERRIEN, LA PORTE, AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES.
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH
ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITHIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS, A COMBO OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
LEAD TO VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO.
- TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES. AVOID OR POSTPONE
TRAVEL, IF POSSIBLE, FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
TODAY...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW)
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING THROUGH
THE AREA PROVIDING LIFT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING. LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT NONE OF IT HAS REACHED THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WAA BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON,
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRAVERSES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM'S
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH MEANS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INTENSIFY
CAA AND HELP TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE TWO FRONTS, ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF). A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SYNOPTIC (SYSTEM) SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
BETWEEN 09-15Z WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AROUND 0.5-1" OF SNOW TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO
DEVELOP FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND POTENTIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW OF THE
FREEZING MARK. CAA AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 12-15Z WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS, A LAKE SUPERIOR-LAKE MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR N-S ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS TO PERSIST FAIRLY FAR INLAND AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONFINED
ALONG/WEST OF US 31 IN INDIANA, BUT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LAKE
EFFECT REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL INDIANA
(SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR EXTRAPOLATE LAKE EFFECT AS FAR SOUTH AS
LOUISVILLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING!)
DELTA T'S WILL BE AS HIGH AS 17-18C WITH COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
STILL RELATIVELY MILD AND UNFROZEN LAKE MICHIGAN (WATER TEMPS
BETWEEN 1-3C). IN ADDITION, PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BENTON HARBOR AND
MICHIGAN CITY DEPICT INCREASING LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 8000 FT. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT, AND HELP TO INTENSIFY SNOW RATES. AT TIMES, SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE 1-2" PER HOUR. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY, HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS A BI-MODAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SETUP. RIGHT NOW,
THE THINKING IS MAYBE ONE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND GOES THROUGH
NORTHERN BERRIEN, CASS [MI], AND ST JOSEPH [IN], AND MAYBE INTO
ELKHART COUNTIES AND THE OTHER GOES THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA
PORTE, STARKE, MARSHALL, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS PULASKI
AND FULTON COUNTIES IN INDIANA. NEVERTHELESS, BERRIEN, LA PORTE,
AND ST JOESPH COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS ARE. AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER A SMALL AREA WITH A
SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN LIGHT SNOW AND THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN A 20- 30 MILE SPAN. SLRS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20:1 BUT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF SLRS OVERPERFORM WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND(S) AND SOMEONE
ENDS UP GETTING CLOSER TO A 30:1 RATIO DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNING/ADVISORY HEADLINES. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR BERRIEN, LA PORTE,
AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-8" ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA
WILL LIKELY HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CASS, STARKE, AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2-
6". SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CASS COUNTY, MI.
IT IS ALSO GOING TO BE WINDY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AND
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WARNING AREA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS
ALSO LIKELY FOR BOTH N-S AND E-W ORIENTED ROADS. AS CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY, TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS. THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES WILL BE IMPACTED
BY SNOW, RAPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS. AVOID OR POSTPONE TRAVEL, IF POSSIBLE, FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY EVENING...
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FOR ABOUT 6-12 HOURS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUBSIDENCE GRADUALLY WORKS IN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CUTS OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DEPENDING ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO FULLY TAPER OFF, THE
THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE MAY ALSO BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
IN QUICK SUCCESSION WITH THE MIDWEEK LAKE EFFECT EVENT, YET ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE, A COMBO OF ACCUMULATING SYSTEM AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW
ON FRIDAY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS AS SNOW WILL ALREADY BE
FALLING BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ARE
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE, WITH ISOLATED 3" AMOUNTS NORTH OF US 30. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THEN DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
IT MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE MIDWEEK EVENT. IT WILL BE WINDY
AGAIN TOO, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT). COLDER AIR CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
POTENT MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
(ESP AT KSBN) AND CEILINGS AROUND 1 KFT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS OVER
THE LAKE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SINGLE, DOMINANT BAND THAT LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AT
KSBN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MODERATE-
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE 00-12Z TONIGHT BUT ADJUSTMENTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE BASED ON EXACT LOCATION OF PRIMARY BAND. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME BLOWING SNOW PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS (21-03Z) WHEN THERE IS AN OVERLAP OF
STRONGEST WINDS WITH HEAVIEST SNOW. IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER
AT KFWA BUT DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BOTH WITH
THE FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND WITH SOME POSTFRONTAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD END AT KFWA BY 03Z
AS DOMINANT BAND ORGANIZES IN THE SBN VICINITY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ012-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO
1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ078.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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