279
FXUS63 KIWX 141133
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SYSTEM
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE
THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS. WARNING
AREAS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 6-12" OF SNOW, AND ADVISORIES IN
THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
- TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO FALLING, BLOWING, AND DRIFTING SNOW,
PARTICULARLY ON E-W ORIENTED ROADS.
- THERE IS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SYSTEM AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR HEADLINE TODAY-THURSDAY WAS TO
EXPAND THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT
OCCURRING, WITH ONE OR MAYBE TWO DOMINANT BANDS FORMING AT LEAST FOR
A PERIOD. THIS WAS A TRICKY DECISION AS THERE WAS STILL NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS, BUT THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
EXPANSION WAS BECAUSE SEVERAL OF THE (00-06Z) MODELS STRONGLY HINT
AT ONE MORE DOMINANT BANDS THAT PARK OVER BERRIEN/WESTERN CASS, MI
(ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER) AND ST. JOSEPH, IN INTO
MARSHALL/KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
(CLOSER TO 45 MPH NEAR LAKE MI) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (AND 25-35
MPH POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO THU), FELT THAT THERE WOULD BE AT LEAST
ENOUGH TRAVEL IMPACTS TO JUSTIFY THE EXPANSIONS. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
WENT WITH 6-12" IN THE WARNING AREAS, AND 3-6 INCHES FOR THE
ADVISORY AREAS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS HASN'T CHANGED IN TERMS
OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO LOWER MI TONIGHT AND MOVING E-SE FROM
THERE, AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN BEHIND IT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. WHAT HAS CONTINUED TO VARY HAS BEEN THE PLACEMENT OF ONE
OR MORE DOMINANT BANDS, PART OF WHICH WAS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE OTHER
POTENTIAL SCENARIO THAT STANDS OUT (LIKE THE 6-9Z HRRR) IS WE GET
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THIS MORNING, WITH LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON-WITH A MORE DOMINANT BAND OVER BERRIEN/CASS/WESTERN
ELKHART/ST. JOSEPH/BERRIEN/MARSHALL/WESTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES
INITIALLY AROUND 00Z-3Z THAT QUICKLY MIGRATES WESTWARD TOWARDS
STARKE/LAPORTE OVERNIGHT-THEN LINGERS THERE OR SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY (QPF THROUGH 21Z EVEN!). THE HRRR HAS A
STRONGER/MORE EASTWARD LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT THAT REALLY HELPS THIS
BAND SHIFT WEST, HOWEVER I'M SUSPICIOUS THAT IS BEING OVERDONE
(GIVEN THE STRONGER SYSTEM FLOW). OTHER MODELS KEEP THE FLOW MORE
PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER-SO I KEPT THE FORECAST
ANCHORED FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE HRRR MAY WANT TO MOVE THE BAND.
THE CANADIAN/NAM/RAP HAVE SOME VARIETY OF KEEPING THE MORE DOMINANT
BAND NORTHEAST INITIALLY (INCLUDING OVER CASS AND INTO SOME OF THE
AREAS I EXPANDED ADVISORY/WARNING TO), AND HAVE A SLOW OR MINIMAL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BAND LINGERS OVER ST.
JOSEPH/MARSHALL/KOSCIUSKO (WEST HALF) AND ELKHART (ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER) FOR A TIME BEFORE IMPACTING LAPORTE/STARK
(ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST) AND POSSIBLY FULTON, IN (NO HEADLINE AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE HIGHEST QPF REMAINS A BIT NORTH OF THERE SO I
DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY). WHAT IS CONCERNING
ABOUT THAT IS WE COULD HAVE A SCENARIO WHERE LA PORTE (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN LA PORTE) AND STARK SEE MUCH LOWER TOTALS. IF THE HRRR (AND
A FEW OF THE CAMS) ARE RIGHT--IT WOULD LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER TOTALS
FOR THOSE COUNTIES. IT WOULD ALSO MEAN THAT PORTIONS OF
CASS/ELKHART/KOSCIUSKO COULD SEE A SHORTER DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW
(THE BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT), WHICH WOULD CUT SNOW TOTALS. BY
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE WIND SHIFT TO THE W-SW
SHIFTS THE BAND EASTWARD AGAIN AND NORTH-WITH QPF DWINDLING AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. EITHER WAY-TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED IN AREAS
THAT SEE MORE SNOWFALL-ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND GUSTS CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING THROUGH THURSDAY (E-W ORIENTED ROADS WILL BE
WORST). I DID ASSUME 20:1 RATIOS STILL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
FRACTURING OF FLAKES, BUT I COULD SEE PERIODS WHERE IT'S HIGHER (25-
30:1)--WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE GREATER SNOWFALLS AS WELL ASSUMING
SIMILAR QPF. I SHOULD MENTION ALSO THAT THE SNOW WON'T BE CONFINED
TO ONE OF THE BANDS--IT'S JUST WHERE THE BETTER 1-2"/HR RATES WOULD
BE IF IT DOES DEVELOP-SO SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEFINITELY A CHALLENGING FORECAST! SUCH IS THE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPS IN THE MORNING HERE ARE AROUND THE UPPER 30S,
LOW 40S, AND SUSPECT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. THE TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/LOW 30S, SO WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
HILLSDALE, MI/FULTON, OH.
BEYOND THAT WE DO HAVE ANOTHER LOW DROPPING IN AFTER A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES
OF SYSTEM SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES ALOFT. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER, PARTICULARLY STARTING
SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
WIND CHILLS SOME NIGHTS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO. WILL ADD
GREATER DETAIL REGARDING THE UPCOMING ACTIVE PATTERN/COLD TEMPS ONCE
THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT TAPERS DOWN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A BURST
OF MODERATE SNOW, MVFR CEILINGS, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. GREATEST IMPACTS BY FAR AT KSBN WHERE HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW. VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/2SM ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND BUT LATEST HI-RES SUGGESTS
KSBN WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE BAND FOR MANY HOURS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS RELAX LATE TONIGHT BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LIKELY NOT END UNTIL LATE THU MORNING. AT KFWA, EXPECT JUST
A BRIEF WINDOW OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SINGLE BAND ORGANIZES AROUND KSBN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN QUIET/VFR CONDITIONS AT
KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ005-012-116-216.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ014-103-104-203-204.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ078-177-
277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...AGD
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